Why high expectations for enterprise generative AI are being realized faster than prior technological innovations
There have been some astonishing predictions about generative AI since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November 2022. The innovative technology dazzled users, and its rapid adoption created uncertainty and fear about unchecked generative AI. There were calls for regulation and prominent individuals warned humanity was at risk in open letters that urged development be paused. AI hype was everywhere in the business world as leaders recognized generative AI’s ability to quickly synthesize vast amounts of data, respond to queries and recommend actions.
Yet, despite the rapid adoption of general-purpose gen AI tools such as ChatGPT and claims about all manner of dramatic changes, early hype exceeded reality in terms of beneficial aspects and dire consequences. This natural fading of enthusiasm was to be expected, as anyone can attest who witnessed prior cycles such as the Internet, cloud computer, mobile and blockchain. Despite all this, a quiet enthusiasm was growing about something profound: How generative AI dramatically improves productivity and increases decision-making accuracy in many enterprise use cases across many industry verticals.
The initial euphoria about enterprise AI was not wrong, it was just early and incomplete. Realizing the benefits of innovation historically takes longer than initial expectations as the technology and its uses mature, and that is what’s happening with enterprise AI, as generative AI is combined with already established predictive AI to create powerful, targeted vertical applications.
This phenomenon—of overstating short-term impact of technology and underestimating the effect over the long run—is known as Amara’s Law. Named after Roy Amara, the American researcher, scientist, and futurist who was president of Stanford’s the Institute for the Future from 1971 to 1990, he observed the adage back in the 1960’s.
Microsoft co-founder and former chairman and CEO Bill Gates came to a similar conclusion in his 1995 book “The Road Ahead,” but added more precision to the time frame. Gates’ view was, “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.”
Coincidentally, 1995 was the same year Gartner introduced its hype cycle and established a framework for how new technologies evolve from a peak of elevated expectations to a trough of disillusionment to a slope of enlightenment and then a plateau of productivity.
Does Amara’s Law apply to generative AI?
The technology world has changed dramatically over the past few decades. The pace of change accelerated and gave rise to the axiom that change has never happened this fast and it will never happen this slowly again. This concept of exponential change known as The Law of Accelerating Returns was introduced by futurist and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil in his 1999 book, “The Age of Spiritual Machines.”
This is certainly true with generative AI, where rapid advances in have compressed the gap between hype and value creation. For example, companies in major industry verticals are already seeing the benefits of generative AI at an accelerated pace thanks to innovations from SymphonyAI that combine predictive and generative AI in enterprise-class products. For example:
- Financial institutions are increasing the productivity of investigators by up to 70% with the Sensa Copilot. It helps institutions combat money laundering by more rapidly and accurately identifying financial crime attempts and helping write suspicious activity reports and investigation narratives.
- Retailers are improving shopper satisfaction by using the Category Manager Copilot to understand shopper behavior and determine optimal product assortments. The Demand Planner Copilot helps users increase demand forecast accuracy and overall supply chain efficiency while allowing for “what if” scenario planning.
- Manufacturers are improving operational efficiency, reducing costs and enhancing decision-making with the IRIS Copilot. It uses generative AI to revolutionize industrial workflows combined with industry specific skills for plant performance, digital manufacturing and connected workers.
- The SymphonyAI Media Copilot helps content sellers understand distribution patterns, viewership trends and performance through a natural language interface.
- Enterprise IT organizations are using the Apex Enterprise AI copilot suite to improve productivity of users by automating and accelerating the discovery of information from disparate departments.
All of these innovations came to market much faster than Gates imagined nearly 30 years ago, considering ChatGPT’s two-year anniversary is November 2024. And these are just a few examples of how generative AI for the enterprise has advanced quickly. There are real products in the market creating real value, and dozens of others in development, that will help companies improve business performance at a pace much faster than what technology luminaries envisioned decades ago.
The quiet revolution in enterprise AI
As one of the world’s foremost authorities in enterprise AI, SymphonyAI was recently recognized by Microsoft as its AI Innovation Partner of the Year. It’s why the company assembled a panel of technology experts to explore “Cutting through the hype to unleash true enterprise AI value.” This webinar is an unfiltered discussion to help business leaders separate fact from fiction with AI for the enterprise. Moderated by Ray Wang, founder, chairman and principal analyst with Silicon Valley-based Constellation Research, expert panelists are Eve Psalti, senior director at Microsoft’s Azure AI engineering organization, Dr. Daniela Rus, director of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at MIT, and SymphonyAI’s chief technology officer Raj Shukla.
The topics discussed offer a clear-eyed view of the current state of enterprise AI, common myths, top use cases and a unique perspective on the road ahead to help business leaders develop value creation strategies. View the webinar below:
